ARB / PAXG ratio and spread
1 ARB = 4.18E-5 PAXG. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is -2.644 and the correlation between the legs is 0.11.
If you hold ARB · If you hold PAXG
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Key numbers
over 1318 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The fitted hedge ratio is negative: over the window ARB and PAXG moved in opposite directions. A pair trade assumes the legs move together, so this combination does not qualify as one.
The spread is at 0.29 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 50 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 2% of the way from the low to the high of the last 1318 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 1139 candles: 8. Closed by a return to the norm: 8. The median return took 73 days, the longest one 112 days.
The last closed one ran from 06.09.2026 to 30.10.2026, 54 days: peak z = 2.34, ARB was expensive against PAXG.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 73 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06.09.2026 — 30.10.2026 | ARB | 2.34 | 54 d |
| 05.06.2026 — 19.08.2026 | PAXG | -3.00 | 75 d |
| 05.02.2026 — 16.04.2026 | PAXG | -3.04 | 70 d |
| 18.07.2025 — 10.10.2025 | ARB | 2.77 | 84 d |
| 10.03.2025 — 21.04.2025 | PAXG | -2.40 | 42 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many PAXG is 1 ARB?
1 ARB is worth 0.000041769310361484 PAXG at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the ARB/PAXG range?
Over the last 1318 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.000017131881267622 (16.08.2026) and 0.00120347 (11.01.2024).
Are ARB and PAXG correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between ARB and PAXG is 0.11, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the ARB/PAXG spread z-score now?
The z-score is 0.29 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is ARB/PAXG suitable for a pair trade?
No. The fitted hedge ratio is negative, meaning the legs moved in opposite directions over the window — the market-neutral construction that pair trading relies on does not hold here.
How often do ARB and PAXG diverge?
Over 1139 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 8 times. The median return to the norm took 73 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.