ETH / PAXG ratio and spread
1 ETH = 0.5707542 PAXG. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.429 and the correlation between the legs is 0.14.
If you hold ETH · If you hold PAXG
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Key numbers
over 2255 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs barely move together: correlation of daily log returns is only 0.14. A spread built on such a weak link reverts by coincidence rather than by mechanism.
The spread is at 0.58 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 123 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 16% of the way from the low to the high of the last 2255 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 2076 candles: 12. Closed by a return to the norm: 11. The median return took 65 days, the longest one 156 days.
The last closed one ran from 31.01.2026 to 17.04.2026, 76 days: peak z = -3.09, PAXG was expensive against ETH.
One is running right now: it started on 21.08.2026, has lasted 70 days, peak z = 2.33, ETH was expensive against PAXG. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 65 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31.01.2026 — 17.04.2026 | PAXG | -3.09 | 76 d |
| 20.07.2025 — 10.10.2025 | ETH | 2.56 | 82 d |
| 09.03.2025 — 09.05.2025 | PAXG | -2.63 | 61 d |
| 04.08.2024 — 07.11.2024 | PAXG | -3.41 | 95 d |
| 09.11.2023 — 13.04.2024 | ETH | 2.88 | 156 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many PAXG is 1 ETH?
1 ETH is worth 0.570754 PAXG at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the ETH/PAXG range?
Over the last 2255 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.17966 (22.09.2020) and 2.66226 (01.12.2021).
Are ETH and PAXG correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between ETH and PAXG is 0.14, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the ETH/PAXG spread z-score now?
The z-score is 0.58 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is ETH/PAXG suitable for a pair trade?
Weakly. Correlation is only 0.14, so the legs do not reliably move together and the spread carries mostly idiosyncratic noise.
How often do ETH and PAXG diverge?
Over 2076 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 12 times. The median return to the norm took 65 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.