ADA / PAXG ratio and spread
1 ADA = 4.91E-5 PAXG. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is -0.564 and the correlation between the legs is 0.13.
If you hold ADA · If you hold PAXG
ADA is cheaper against PAXG than in 5 % of the time over 6.2 years. If you hold PAXG, this is worth a look at rotating into ADA.
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Key numbers
over 2255 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The fitted hedge ratio is negative: over the window ADA and PAXG moved in opposite directions. A pair trade assumes the legs move together, so this combination does not qualify as one.
The spread is at -0.50 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 193 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 1% of the way from the low to the high of the last 2255 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 2076 candles: 14. Closed by a return to the norm: 14. The median return took 63 days, the longest one 262 days.
The last closed one ran from 17.11.2025 to 06.08.2026, 262 days: peak z = -3.42, PAXG was expensive against ADA.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 63 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.11.2025 — 06.08.2026 | PAXG | -3.42 | 262 d |
| 13.08.2025 — 10.10.2025 | ADA | 2.45 | 58 d |
| 21.07.2025 — 01.08.2025 | ADA | 2.33 | 11 d |
| 22.06.2025 — 10.07.2025 | PAXG | -2.02 | 18 d |
| 09.11.2024 — 06.02.2025 | ADA | 5.11 | 89 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many PAXG is 1 ADA?
1 ADA is worth 0.000049116437990497 PAXG at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the ADA/PAXG range?
Over the last 2255 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.000035892435393616 (28.06.2026) and 0.00170104 (02.09.2021).
Are ADA and PAXG correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between ADA and PAXG is 0.13, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the ADA/PAXG spread z-score now?
The z-score is -0.50 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is ADA/PAXG suitable for a pair trade?
No. The fitted hedge ratio is negative, meaning the legs moved in opposite directions over the window — the market-neutral construction that pair trading relies on does not hold here.
How often do ADA and PAXG diverge?
Over 2076 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 14 times. The median return to the norm took 63 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.