BTC / PAXG ratio and spread
1 BTC = 19.69 PAXG. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 1.260 and the correlation between the legs is 0.15.
If you hold BTC · If you hold PAXG
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Key numbers
over 2255 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs barely move together: correlation of daily log returns is only 0.15. A spread built on such a weak link reverts by coincidence rather than by mechanism.
The spread is at 1.42 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 162 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 41% of the way from the low to the high of the last 2255 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 2076 candles: 9. Closed by a return to the norm: 8. The median return took 80 days, the longest one 192 days.
The last closed one ran from 11.10.2025 to 21.04.2026, 192 days: peak z = -3.89, PAXG was expensive against BTC.
One is running right now: it started on 03.09.2026, has lasted 57 days, peak z = 3.02, BTC was expensive against PAXG. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 80 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.10.2025 — 21.04.2026 | PAXG | -3.89 | 192 d |
| 11.11.2024 — 05.02.2025 | BTC | 2.97 | 86 d |
| 04.08.2024 — 16.10.2024 | PAXG | -2.57 | 73 d |
| 23.10.2023 — 13.04.2024 | BTC | 3.13 | 173 d |
| 09.11.2022 — 14.01.2023 | PAXG | -2.45 | 66 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many PAXG is 1 BTC?
1 BTC is worth 19.6905 PAXG at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the BTC/PAXG range?
Over the last 2255 daily candles the ratio traded between 5.27377 (06.09.2020) and 40.5816 (17.12.2024).
Are BTC and PAXG correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between BTC and PAXG is 0.15, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the BTC/PAXG spread z-score now?
The z-score is 1.42 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is BTC/PAXG suitable for a pair trade?
Weakly. Correlation is only 0.15, so the legs do not reliably move together and the spread carries mostly idiosyncratic noise.
How often do BTC and PAXG diverge?
Over 2076 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 9 times. The median return to the norm took 80 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.