ARB / TON ratio and spread
1 ARB = 0.102875 TON. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 1.238 and the correlation between the legs is 0.63.
If you hold ARB · If you hold TON
ARB is cheaper against TON than in 1 % of the time over 1.9 years. If you hold TON, this is worth a look at rotating into ARB.
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Key numbers
over 692 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.63, with a hedge ratio of 1.24. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at -1.56 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 75 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 42% of the way from the low to the high of the last 692 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 513 candles: 4. Closed by a return to the norm: 3. The median return took 76 days, the longest one 78 days.
The last closed one ran from 31.01.2026 to 17.04.2026, 76 days: peak z = -4.11, TON was expensive against ARB.
One is running right now: it started on 05.05.2026, has lasted 56 days, peak z = -3.92, TON was expensive against ARB. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 76 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31.01.2026 — 17.04.2026 | TON | -4.11 | 76 d |
| 13.08.2025 — 30.10.2025 | ARB | 2.72 | 78 d |
| 29.03.2025 — 13.04.2025 | TON | -2.99 | 15 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TON is 1 ARB?
1 ARB is worth 0.102875 TON at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the ARB/TON range?
Over the last 692 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.0448916 (07.05.2026) and 0.183275 (24.08.2025).
Are ARB and TON correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between ARB and TON is 0.63, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the ARB/TON spread z-score now?
The z-score is -1.56 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is ARB/TON suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.63 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 75 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do ARB and TON diverge?
Over 513 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 4 times. The median return to the norm took 76 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.