ARB / AVAX ratio and spread
1 ARB = 0.0190339 AVAX. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 1.148 and the correlation between the legs is 0.68.
If you hold ARB · If you hold AVAX
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Key numbers
over 1317 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.68, with a hedge ratio of 1.15. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at 1.30 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 244 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 10% of the way from the low to the high of the last 1317 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 1138 candles: 8. Closed by a return to the norm: 7. The median return took 33 days, the longest one 224 days.
The last closed one ran from 12.07.2026 to 25.07.2026, 13 days: peak z = 2.01, ARB was expensive against AVAX.
One is running right now: it started on 31.08.2026, has lasted 59 days, peak z = 5.11, ARB was expensive against AVAX. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 33 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.07.2026 — 25.07.2026 | ARB | 2.01 | 13 d |
| 19.02.2026 — 10.04.2026 | AVAX | -2.63 | 50 d |
| 18.09.2025 — 21.10.2025 | AVAX | -3.54 | 33 d |
| 13.08.2025 — 11.09.2025 | ARB | 2.77 | 29 d |
| 09.04.2025 — 10.05.2025 | AVAX | -3.60 | 31 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many AVAX is 1 ARB?
1 ARB is worth 0.0190339 AVAX at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the ARB/AVAX range?
Over the last 1317 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.0100102 (23.03.2026) and 0.100437 (02.10.2023).
Are ARB and AVAX correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between ARB and AVAX is 0.68, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the ARB/AVAX spread z-score now?
The z-score is 1.30 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is ARB/AVAX suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.68 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 244 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do ARB and AVAX diverge?
Over 1138 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 8 times. The median return to the norm took 33 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.