AVAX / BTC ratio and spread
1 AVAX = 0.0001098 BTC. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.372 and the correlation between the legs is 0.62.
If you hold AVAX · If you hold BTC
AVAX is cheaper against BTC than in 5 % of the time over 6.1 years. If you hold BTC, this is worth a look at rotating into AVAX.
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Key numbers
over 2228 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.62, with a hedge ratio of 0.37. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at 0.54 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 289 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 1% of the way from the low to the high of the last 2228 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 2049 candles: 11. Closed by a return to the norm: 10. The median return took 100 days, the longest one 277 days.
The last closed one ran from 17.11.2025 to 21.08.2026, 277 days: peak z = -2.93, BTC was expensive against AVAX.
One is running right now: it started on 21.09.2026, has lasted 37 days, peak z = 2.45, AVAX was expensive against BTC. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 100 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.11.2025 — 21.08.2026 | BTC | -2.93 | 277 d |
| 10.09.2025 — 12.10.2025 | AVAX | 3.56 | 32 d |
| 24.02.2025 — 10.05.2025 | BTC | -2.76 | 75 d |
| 22.11.2024 — 13.01.2025 | AVAX | 3.79 | 52 d |
| 14.06.2024 — 20.09.2024 | BTC | -2.67 | 98 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many BTC is 1 AVAX?
1 AVAX is worth 0.000109808 BTC at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the AVAX/BTC range?
Over the last 2228 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.000091671924290221 (31.08.2026) and 0.00256817 (22.12.2021).
Are AVAX and BTC correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between AVAX and BTC is 0.62, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the AVAX/BTC spread z-score now?
The z-score is 0.54 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is AVAX/BTC suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.62 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 289 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do AVAX and BTC diverge?
Over 2049 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 11 times. The median return to the norm took 100 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.