AAVE / ARB ratio and spread
1 AAVE = 829.04 ARB. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is -0.090 and the correlation between the legs is 0.65.
If you hold AAVE · If you hold ARB
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Key numbers
over 1321 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The fitted hedge ratio is negative: over the window AAVE and ARB moved in opposite directions. A pair trade assumes the legs move together, so this combination does not qualify as one.
The spread is at 0.90 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 133 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 57% of the way from the low to the high of the last 1321 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 1142 candles: 6. Closed by a return to the norm: 5. The median return took 91 days, the longest one 245 days.
The last closed one ran from 03.11.2025 to 06.07.2026, 245 days: peak z = -3.17, ARB was expensive against AAVE.
One is running right now: it started on 22.08.2026, has lasted 72 days, peak z = 2.75, AAVE was expensive against ARB. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 91 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03.11.2025 — 06.07.2026 | ARB | -3.17 | 245 d |
| 07.11.2024 — 06.02.2025 | AAVE | 3.33 | 91 d |
| 10.09.2024 — 04.11.2024 | AAVE | 2.77 | 55 d |
| 07.03.2024 — 12.04.2024 | AAVE | 2.29 | 36 d |
| 23.10.2023 — 31.01.2024 | AAVE | 3.19 | 100 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many ARB is 1 AAVE?
1 AAVE is worth 829.04 ARB at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the AAVE/ARB range?
Over the last 1321 daily candles the ratio traded between 43.042 (15.02.2024) and 1430.55 (30.08.2026).
Are AAVE and ARB correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between AAVE and ARB is 0.65, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the AAVE/ARB spread z-score now?
The z-score is 0.90 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is AAVE/ARB suitable for a pair trade?
No. The fitted hedge ratio is negative, meaning the legs moved in opposite directions over the window — the market-neutral construction that pair trading relies on does not hold here.
How often do AAVE and ARB diverge?
Over 1142 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 6 times. The median return to the norm took 91 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.