PAXG / TRUMP ratio and spread
1 PAXG = 2358.55 TRUMP. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is -0.164 and the correlation between the legs is 0.09.
If you hold PAXG · If you hold TRUMP
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Key numbers
over 653 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The fitted hedge ratio is negative: over the window PAXG and TRUMP moved in opposite directions. A pair trade assumes the legs move together, so this combination does not qualify as one.
The spread is at -1.49 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 67 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 75% of the way from the low to the high of the last 653 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 474 candles: 3. Closed by a return to the norm: 3. The median return took 94 days, the longest one 129 days.
The last closed one ran from 17.05.2026 to 19.08.2026, 94 days: peak z = -3.05, TRUMP was expensive against PAXG.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 94 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.05.2026 — 19.08.2026 | TRUMP | -3.05 | 94 d |
| 28.02.2026 — 18.03.2026 | PAXG | 2.18 | 18 d |
| 29.09.2025 — 05.02.2026 | PAXG | 3.81 | 129 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TRUMP is 1 PAXG?
1 PAXG is worth 2358.55 TRUMP at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the PAXG/TRUMP range?
Over the last 653 daily candles the ratio traded between 35.0207 (19.01.2025) and 3146.57 (13.08.2026).
Are PAXG and TRUMP correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between PAXG and TRUMP is 0.09, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the PAXG/TRUMP spread z-score now?
The z-score is -1.49 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is PAXG/TRUMP suitable for a pair trade?
No. The fitted hedge ratio is negative, meaning the legs moved in opposite directions over the window — the market-neutral construction that pair trading relies on does not hold here.
How often do PAXG and TRUMP diverge?
Over 474 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 3 times. The median return to the norm took 94 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.