TON / TRUMP ratio and spread
1 TON = 0.9313155 TRUMP. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.486 and the correlation between the legs is 0.46.
If you hold TON · If you hold TRUMP
TON has been more expensive against TRUMP than now only 4 % of the time over 1.4 years. If you hold TON, this is worth a look at rotating into TRUMP.
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Key numbers
over 528 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.46, with a hedge ratio of 0.49. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at 1.19 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 46 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 76% of the way from the low to the high of the last 528 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 349 candles: 3. Closed by a return to the norm: 2. The median return took 52 days, the longest one 65 days.
The last closed one ran from 29.10.2025 to 02.01.2026, 65 days: peak z = -3.44, TRUMP was expensive against TON.
One is running right now: it started on 29.04.2026, has lasted 62 days, peak z = 6.93, TON was expensive against TRUMP. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 52 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.2025 — 02.01.2026 | TRUMP | -3.44 | 65 d |
| 31.07.2025 — 08.09.2025 | TON | 2.37 | 39 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TRUMP is 1 TON?
1 TON is worth 0.931315 TRUMP at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the TON/TRUMP range?
Over the last 528 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.0693941 (19.01.2025) and 1.20723 (07.05.2026).
Are TON and TRUMP correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between TON and TRUMP is 0.46, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the TON/TRUMP spread z-score now?
The z-score is 1.19 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is TON/TRUMP suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.46 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 46 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do TON and TRUMP diverge?
Over 349 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 3 times. The median return to the norm took 52 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.