NEAR / PAXG ratio and spread
1 NEAR = 0.0011102 PAXG. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is -0.595 and the correlation between the legs is 0.05.
If you hold NEAR · If you hold PAXG
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Key numbers
over 2208 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The fitted hedge ratio is negative: over the window NEAR and PAXG moved in opposite directions. A pair trade assumes the legs move together, so this combination does not qualify as one.
The spread is at 1.22 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 141 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 8% of the way from the low to the high of the last 2208 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 2029 candles: 16. Closed by a return to the norm: 15. The median return took 35 days, the longest one 210 days.
The last closed one ran from 22.05.2026 to 26.06.2026, 35 days: peak z = 3.93, NEAR was expensive against PAXG.
One is running right now: it started on 18.09.2026, has lasted 42 days, peak z = 3.72, NEAR was expensive against PAXG. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 35 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.05.2026 — 26.06.2026 | NEAR | 3.93 | 35 d |
| 01.12.2025 — 16.03.2026 | PAXG | -3.19 | 105 d |
| 09.11.2025 — 14.11.2025 | NEAR | 2.14 | 5 d |
| 04.11.2025 — 09.11.2025 | PAXG | 2.14 | 5 d |
| 18.09.2025 — 10.10.2025 | NEAR | 2.37 | 22 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many PAXG is 1 NEAR?
1 NEAR is worth 0.00111018 PAXG at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the NEAR/PAXG range?
Over the last 2208 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.00018897 (24.02.2026) and 0.0112184 (14.01.2022).
Are NEAR and PAXG correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between NEAR and PAXG is 0.05, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the NEAR/PAXG spread z-score now?
The z-score is 1.22 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is NEAR/PAXG suitable for a pair trade?
No. The fitted hedge ratio is negative, meaning the legs moved in opposite directions over the window — the market-neutral construction that pair trading relies on does not hold here.
How often do NEAR and PAXG diverge?
Over 2029 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 16 times. The median return to the norm took 35 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.