AVAX / TON ratio and spread
1 AVAX = 5.568 TON. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.860 and the correlation between the legs is 0.58.
If you hold AVAX · If you hold TON
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Key numbers
over 692 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.58, with a hedge ratio of 0.86. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at -1.64 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 60 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 26% of the way from the low to the high of the last 692 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 513 candles: 4. Closed by a return to the norm: 3. The median return took 39 days, the longest one 48 days.
The last closed one ran from 05.02.2026 to 16.03.2026, 39 days: peak z = -2.27, TON was expensive against AVAX.
One is running right now: it started on 04.05.2026, has lasted 57 days, peak z = -5.12, TON was expensive against AVAX. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 39 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05.02.2026 — 16.03.2026 | TON | -2.27 | 39 d |
| 10.09.2025 — 28.10.2025 | AVAX | 3.60 | 48 d |
| 31.03.2025 — 11.04.2025 | TON | -2.31 | 11 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TON is 1 AVAX?
1 AVAX is worth 5.56813 TON at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the AVAX/TON range?
Over the last 692 daily candles the ratio traded between 3.00651 (19.08.2024) and 12.7056 (23.09.2025).
Are AVAX and TON correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between AVAX and TON is 0.58, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the AVAX/TON spread z-score now?
The z-score is -1.64 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is AVAX/TON suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.58 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 60 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do AVAX and TON diverge?
Over 513 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 4 times. The median return to the norm took 39 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.