AVAX / TAO ratio and spread
1 AVAX = 0.0348436 TAO. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 1.421 and the correlation between the legs is 0.66.
If you hold AVAX · If you hold TAO
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Key numbers
over 932 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.66, with a hedge ratio of 1.42. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at 0.29 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 54 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 11% of the way from the low to the high of the last 932 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 753 candles: 7. Closed by a return to the norm: 7. The median return took 21 days, the longest one 41 days.
The last closed one ran from 21.09.2026 to 22.09.2026, 1 days: peak z = 2.04, AVAX was expensive against TAO.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 21 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.09.2026 — 22.09.2026 | AVAX | 2.04 | 1 d |
| 24.03.2026 — 14.04.2026 | TAO | -2.80 | 21 d |
| 31.10.2025 — 21.11.2025 | TAO | -2.41 | 21 d |
| 22.09.2025 — 12.10.2025 | AVAX | 2.39 | 20 d |
| 31.05.2025 — 08.07.2025 | TAO | -2.02 | 38 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TAO is 1 AVAX?
1 AVAX is worth 0.0348436 TAO at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the AVAX/TAO range?
Over the last 932 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.024073 (14.06.2026) and 0.11912 (03.07.2024).
Are AVAX and TAO correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between AVAX and TAO is 0.66, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the AVAX/TAO spread z-score now?
The z-score is 0.29 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is AVAX/TAO suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.66 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 54 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do AVAX and TAO diverge?
Over 753 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 7 times. The median return to the norm took 21 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.