BTC / TAO ratio and spread
1 BTC = 317.58 TAO. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.251 and the correlation between the legs is 0.65.
If you hold BTC · If you hold TAO
Sign in to keep favourite pairs.
Alerts
Sign in to set your own alerts.
Key numbers
over 932 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.65, with a hedge ratio of 0.25. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at 1.12 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 135 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 67% of the way from the low to the high of the last 932 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 753 candles: 5. Closed by a return to the norm: 4. The median return took 127 days, the longest one 158 days.
The last closed one ran from 14.11.2025 to 21.04.2026, 158 days: peak z = -3.27, TAO was expensive against BTC.
One is running right now: it started on 03.09.2026, has lasted 56 days, peak z = 2.26, BTC was expensive against TAO. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 127 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.11.2025 — 21.04.2026 | TAO | -3.27 | 158 d |
| 18.05.2025 — 12.10.2025 | BTC | 2.57 | 147 d |
| 11.11.2024 — 26.02.2025 | BTC | 3.57 | 107 d |
| 07.10.2024 — 19.10.2024 | TAO | -2.54 | 12 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TAO is 1 BTC?
1 BTC is worth 317.575 TAO at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the BTC/TAO range?
Over the last 932 daily candles the ratio traded between 57.0904 (11.04.2024) and 447.628 (11.02.2026).
Are BTC and TAO correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between BTC and TAO is 0.65, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the BTC/TAO spread z-score now?
The z-score is 1.12 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is BTC/TAO suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.65 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 135 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do BTC and TAO diverge?
Over 753 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 5 times. The median return to the norm took 127 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.