ARB / TREE ratio and spread
1 ARB = 3.792 TREE. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.703 and the correlation between the legs is 0.58.
If you hold ARB · If you hold TREE
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Key numbers
over 391 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.58, with a hedge ratio of 0.70. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at 1.23 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 85 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 62% of the way from the low to the high of the last 391 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 212 candles: 2. Closed by a return to the norm: 1. The median return took 8 days, the longest one 8 days.
The last closed one ran from 19.07.2026 to 27.07.2026, 8 days: peak z = 2.10, ARB was expensive against TREE.
One is running right now: it started on 20.08.2026, has lasted 65 days, peak z = 5.49, ARB was expensive against TREE. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 8 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.07.2026 — 27.07.2026 | ARB | 2.10 | 8 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TREE is 1 ARB?
1 ARB is worth 3.79176 TREE at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the ARB/TREE range?
Over the last 391 daily candles the ratio traded between 1.06109 (06.04.2026) and 5.44904 (20.10.2026).
Are ARB and TREE correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between ARB and TREE is 0.58, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the ARB/TREE spread z-score now?
The z-score is 1.23 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is ARB/TREE suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.58 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 85 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do ARB and TREE diverge?
Over 212 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 2 times. The median return to the norm took 8 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.