AI / TON ratio and spread
1 AI = 0.0121875 TON. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 1.809 and the correlation between the legs is 0.43.
If you hold AI · If you hold TON
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Key numbers
over 275 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.43, with a hedge ratio of 1.81. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at -0.31 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 25 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 10% of the way from the low to the high of the last 275 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 96 candles: 2. Closed by a return to the norm: 2. The median return took 38 days, the longest one 57 days.
The last closed one ran from 04.05.2026 to 30.06.2026, 57 days: peak z = -5.51, TON was expensive against AI.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 38 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04.05.2026 — 30.06.2026 | TON | -5.51 | 57 d |
| 11.04.2026 — 29.04.2026 | TON | -2.52 | 18 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TON is 1 AI?
1 AI is worth 0.0121875 TON at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the AI/TON range?
Over the last 275 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.00822153 (07.05.2026) and 0.0494978 (08.10.2025).
Are AI and TON correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between AI and TON is 0.43, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the AI/TON spread z-score now?
The z-score is -0.31 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is AI/TON suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.43 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 25 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do AI and TON diverge?
Over 96 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 2 times. The median return to the norm took 38 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.