AI / ARB ratio and spread
1 AI = 0.1114145 ARB. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.893 and the correlation between the legs is 0.51.
If you hold AI · If you hold ARB
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Key numbers
over 389 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.51, with a hedge ratio of 0.89. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at -1.47 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 49 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 12% of the way from the low to the high of the last 389 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 210 candles: 4. Closed by a return to the norm: 3. The median return took 21 days, the longest one 54 days.
The last closed one ran from 16.05.2026 to 09.07.2026, 54 days: peak z = 2.61, AI was expensive against ARB.
One is running right now: it started on 02.09.2026, has lasted 50 days, peak z = -4.06, ARB was expensive against AI. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 21 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.05.2026 — 09.07.2026 | AI | 2.61 | 54 d |
| 30.04.2026 — 03.05.2026 | ARB | -2.01 | 3 d |
| 08.04.2026 — 29.04.2026 | ARB | -3.33 | 21 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many ARB is 1 AI?
1 AI is worth 0.111415 ARB at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the AI/ARB range?
Over the last 389 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.0782427 (23.09.2026) and 0.353706 (30.06.2026).
Are AI and ARB correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between AI and ARB is 0.51, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the AI/ARB spread z-score now?
The z-score is -1.47 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is AI/ARB suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.51 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 49 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do AI and ARB diverge?
Over 210 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 4 times. The median return to the norm took 21 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.