ADA / HOT ratio and spread
1 ADA = 358.98 HOT. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 1.722 and the correlation between the legs is 0.68.
If you hold ADA · If you hold HOT
ADA is cheaper against HOT than in 1 % of the time over 1.1 years. If you hold HOT, this is worth a look at rotating into ADA.
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Key numbers
over 389 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.68, with a hedge ratio of 1.72. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread currently sits at -3.32 standard deviations from its rolling mean — ADA is cheap relative to HOT by the standards of this window.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 5 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 0% of the way from the low to the high of the last 389 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 210 candles: 5. Closed by a return to the norm: 4. The median return took 16 days, the longest one 21 days.
The last closed one ran from 27.09.2026 to 08.10.2026, 10 days: peak z = -2.23, HOT was expensive against ADA.
One is running right now: it started on 03.11.2026, has lasted 0 days, peak z = -3.32, HOT was expensive against ADA. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 16 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.09.2026 — 08.10.2026 | HOT | -2.23 | 10 d |
| 11.07.2026 — 01.08.2026 | HOT | -3.32 | 21 d |
| 27.06.2026 — 30.06.2026 | HOT | -2.84 | 3 d |
| 24.04.2026 — 15.05.2026 | HOT | -2.38 | 21 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many HOT is 1 ADA?
1 ADA is worth 358.979 HOT at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the ADA/HOT range?
Over the last 389 daily candles the ratio traded between 358.979 (03.11.2026) and 1035.15 (11.10.2025).
Are ADA and HOT correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between ADA and HOT is 0.68, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the ADA/HOT spread z-score now?
The z-score is -3.32 — the spread is stretched beyond two standard deviations. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is ADA/HOT suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.68 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 5 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do ADA and HOT diverge?
Over 210 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 5 times. The median return to the norm took 16 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.