PAXG / PEPE ratio and spread
1 PAXG = 747863117.87 PEPE. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.113 and the correlation between the legs is 0.09.
If you hold PAXG · If you hold PEPE
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Key numbers
over 1275 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs barely move together: correlation of daily log returns is only 0.09. A spread built on such a weak link reverts by coincidence rather than by mechanism.
The spread currently sits at -2.21 standard deviations from its rolling mean — PAXG is cheap relative to PEPE by the standards of this window.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 700 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 22% of the way from the low to the high of the last 1275 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 1096 candles: 6. Closed by a return to the norm: 5. The median return took 87 days, the longest one 200 days.
The last closed one ran from 01.09.2025 to 20.03.2026, 200 days: peak z = 4.07, PAXG was expensive against PEPE.
One is running right now: it started on 29.09.2026, has lasted 31 days, peak z = -2.54, PEPE was expensive against PAXG. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 87 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01.09.2025 — 20.03.2026 | PAXG | 4.07 | 200 d |
| 04.02.2025 — 10.07.2025 | PAXG | 2.55 | 156 d |
| 16.08.2024 — 11.11.2024 | PAXG | 2.19 | 87 d |
| 26.02.2024 — 05.04.2024 | PEPE | -5.41 | 39 d |
| 01.02.2024 — 13.02.2024 | PAXG | 2.10 | 12 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many PEPE is 1 PAXG?
1 PAXG is worth 747863117.87 PEPE at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the PAXG/PEPE range?
Over the last 1275 daily candles the ratio traded between 93723554.3 (09.12.2024) and 3068750000 (19.10.2023).
Are PAXG and PEPE correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between PAXG and PEPE is 0.09, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the PAXG/PEPE spread z-score now?
The z-score is -2.21 — the spread is stretched beyond two standard deviations. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is PAXG/PEPE suitable for a pair trade?
Weakly. Correlation is only 0.09, so the legs do not reliably move together and the spread carries mostly idiosyncratic noise.
How often do PAXG and PEPE diverge?
Over 1096 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 6 times. The median return to the norm took 87 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.