NIL / TON ratio and spread
1 NIL = 0.0470375 TON. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 2.429 and the correlation between the legs is 0.47.
If you hold NIL · If you hold TON
NIL is cheaper against TON than in 1 % of the time over 1.3 years. If you hold TON, this is worth a look at rotating into NIL.
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Key numbers
over 464 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.47, with a hedge ratio of 2.43. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at -1.29 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 23 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 12% of the way from the low to the high of the last 464 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 285 candles: 3. Closed by a return to the norm: 3. The median return took 20 days, the longest one 48 days.
The last closed one ran from 04.05.2026 to 24.05.2026, 20 days: peak z = -5.55, TON was expensive against NIL.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 20 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04.05.2026 — 24.05.2026 | TON | -5.55 | 20 d |
| 11.04.2026 — 25.04.2026 | TON | -2.39 | 14 d |
| 10.10.2025 — 27.11.2025 | NIL | 3.21 | 48 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TON is 1 NIL?
1 NIL is worth 0.0470375 TON at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the NIL/TON range?
Over the last 464 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.0173434 (06.05.2026) and 0.259564 (24.03.2025).
Are NIL and TON correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between NIL and TON is 0.47, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the NIL/TON spread z-score now?
The z-score is -1.29 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is NIL/TON suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.47 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 23 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do NIL and TON diverge?
Over 285 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 3 times. The median return to the norm took 20 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.