ALT / TRUMP ratio and spread
1 ALT = 0.0066313 TRUMP. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.929 and the correlation between the legs is 0.52.
If you hold ALT · If you hold TRUMP
ALT has been more expensive against TRUMP than now only 0 % of the time over 1.8 years. If you hold ALT, this is worth a look at rotating into TRUMP.
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Key numbers
over 642 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.52, with a hedge ratio of 0.93. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread currently sits at 4.54 standard deviations above its rolling mean — ALT is expensive relative to TRUMP by the standards of this window.
Reversion is slow: the spread needs roughly 32 days to cover half the way back to its mean. A position would have to be held for a long time.
The current ratio sits in the upper part of its range — 100% of the way from the low to the high of the last 642 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 463 candles: 4. Closed by a return to the norm: 3. The median return took 105 days, the longest one 116 days.
The last closed one ran from 25.04.2026 to 19.08.2026, 116 days: peak z = 3.70, ALT was expensive against TRUMP.
One is running right now: it started on 18.10.2026, has lasted 4 days, peak z = 4.54, ALT was expensive against TRUMP. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 105 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.04.2026 — 19.08.2026 | ALT | 3.70 | 116 d |
| 29.10.2025 — 11.02.2026 | TRUMP | -2.82 | 105 d |
| 27.07.2025 — 10.10.2025 | ALT | 2.22 | 75 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TRUMP is 1 ALT?
1 ALT is worth 0.00663134 TRUMP at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the ALT/TRUMP range?
Over the last 642 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.00132988 (19.01.2025) and 0.00663134 (22.10.2026).
Are ALT and TRUMP correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between ALT and TRUMP is 0.52, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the ALT/TRUMP spread z-score now?
The z-score is 4.54 — the spread is stretched beyond two standard deviations. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is ALT/TRUMP suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.52 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 32 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do ALT and TRUMP diverge?
Over 463 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 4 times. The median return to the norm took 105 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.