CELO / HOT ratio and spread
1 CELO = 139.92 HOT. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 1.829 and the correlation between the legs is 0.63.
If you hold CELO · If you hold HOT
CELO is cheaper against HOT than in 1 % of the time over 1.1 years. If you hold HOT, this is worth a look at rotating into CELO.
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Key numbers
over 389 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.63, with a hedge ratio of 1.83. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread currently sits at -3.09 standard deviations from its rolling mean — CELO is cheap relative to HOT by the standards of this window.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 6 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits near the bottom of its range — only 0% of the way from the low to the high of the last 389 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 210 candles: 4. Closed by a return to the norm: 3. The median return took 6 days, the longest one 22 days.
The last closed one ran from 30.10.2026 to 31.10.2026, 1 days: peak z = 2.37, CELO was expensive against HOT.
One is running right now: it started on 03.11.2026, has lasted 0 days, peak z = -3.09, HOT was expensive against CELO. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 6 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30.10.2026 — 31.10.2026 | CELO | 2.37 | 1 d |
| 28.06.2026 — 04.07.2026 | CELO | 2.42 | 6 d |
| 05.06.2026 — 27.06.2026 | CELO | 3.09 | 22 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many HOT is 1 CELO?
1 CELO is worth 139.924 HOT at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the CELO/HOT range?
Over the last 389 daily candles the ratio traded between 139.924 (03.11.2026) and 548.246 (06.10.2025).
Are CELO and HOT correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between CELO and HOT is 0.63, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the CELO/HOT spread z-score now?
The z-score is -3.09 — the spread is stretched beyond two standard deviations. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is CELO/HOT suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.63 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 6 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do CELO and HOT diverge?
Over 210 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 4 times. The median return to the norm took 6 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.