BTC / U ratio and spread
1 BTC = 78756.16 U. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is -127.469 and the correlation between the legs is -0.23.
If you hold BTC · If you hold U
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Key numbers
over 290 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The fitted hedge ratio is negative: over the window BTC and U moved in opposite directions. A pair trade assumes the legs move together, so this combination does not qualify as one.
The spread is at 1.09 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 12 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 49% of the way from the low to the high of the last 290 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 111 candles: 1, and none of them has closed with a return to the norm yet.
One is running right now: it started on 22.09.2026, has lasted 37 days, peak z = 2.18, BTC was expensive against U. It has not returned to the norm yet.
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many U is 1 BTC?
1 BTC is worth 78756.2 U at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the BTC/U range?
Over the last 290 daily candles the ratio traded between 60192.3 (30.06.2026) and 97904.9 (14.01.2026).
Are BTC and U correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between BTC and U is -0.23, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the BTC/U spread z-score now?
The z-score is 1.09 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is BTC/U suitable for a pair trade?
No. The fitted hedge ratio is negative, meaning the legs moved in opposite directions over the window — the market-neutral construction that pair trading relies on does not hold here.
How often do BTC and U diverge?
Over 111 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 1 times, and none of those divergences has closed with a return to the norm yet.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.