RLUSD / U ratio and spread
1 RLUSD = 1.001 U. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.766 and the correlation between the legs is 0.59.
If you hold RLUSD · If you hold U
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Key numbers
over 280 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.59, with a hedge ratio of 0.77. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at 1.61 standard deviations from its rolling mean: away from the norm, but not far enough to call it stretched.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 5 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 74% of the way from the low to the high of the last 280 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 101 candles: 3. Closed by a return to the norm: 2. The median return took 24 days, the longest one 37 days.
The last closed one ran from 12.10.2026 to 22.10.2026, 10 days: peak z = 2.75, RLUSD was expensive against U.
One is running right now: it started on 24.10.2026, has lasted 4 days, peak z = 2.75, RLUSD was expensive against U. It has not returned to the norm yet.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 24 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.10.2026 — 22.10.2026 | RLUSD | 2.75 | 10 d |
| 29.07.2026 — 04.09.2026 | RLUSD | 2.94 | 37 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many U is 1 RLUSD?
1 RLUSD is worth 1.0007 U at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the RLUSD/U range?
Over the last 280 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.993942 (11.02.2026) and 1.0031 (22.01.2026).
Are RLUSD and U correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between RLUSD and U is 0.59, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the RLUSD/U spread z-score now?
The z-score is 1.61 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is RLUSD/U suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.59 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 5 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do RLUSD and U diverge?
Over 101 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 3 times. The median return to the norm took 24 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.