HOT / TRX ratio and spread
1 HOT = 0.0016378 TRX. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is -0.903 and the correlation between the legs is 0.26.
If you hold HOT · If you hold TRX
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Key numbers
over 389 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The fitted hedge ratio is negative: over the window HOT and TRX moved in opposite directions. A pair trade assumes the legs move together, so this combination does not qualify as one.
The spread is at 0.68 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 20 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 41% of the way from the low to the high of the last 389 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 210 candles: 1. Closed by a return to the norm: 1. The median return took 30 days, the longest one 30 days.
The last closed one ran from 05.06.2026 to 05.07.2026, 30 days: peak z = -2.60, TRX was expensive against HOT.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 30 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05.06.2026 — 05.07.2026 | TRX | -2.60 | 30 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many TRX is 1 HOT?
1 HOT is worth 0.00163777 TRX at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the HOT/TRX range?
Over the last 389 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.000896571 (30.10.2026) and 0.00270353 (08.11.2025).
Are HOT and TRX correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between HOT and TRX is 0.26, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the HOT/TRX spread z-score now?
The z-score is 0.68 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is HOT/TRX suitable for a pair trade?
No. The fitted hedge ratio is negative, meaning the legs moved in opposite directions over the window — the market-neutral construction that pair trading relies on does not hold here.
How often do HOT and TRX diverge?
Over 210 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 1 times. The median return to the norm took 30 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.