CELO / XPL ratio and spread
1 CELO = 0.9420022 XPL. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 0.756 and the correlation between the legs is 0.48.
If you hold CELO · If you hold XPL
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Key numbers
over 398 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs move together only moderately — correlation of daily log returns is 0.48, with a hedge ratio of 0.76. Signals from this pair carry more noise than on a tightly linked one.
The spread is at 0.21 standard deviations from its rolling mean, which is effectively at its own norm.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 8 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits mid-range — 79% of the way from the low to the high of the last 398 daily candles.
When this happened before
Divergences over 219 candles: 3. Closed by a return to the norm: 3. The median return took 25 days, the longest one 30 days.
The last closed one ran from 01.10.2026 to 31.10.2026, 30 days: peak z = 2.33, CELO was expensive against XPL.
For a holder this answers not “what to do” but “how long it usually took”: the median return is 25 days. That is no guarantee — past divergences closed, this one may not.
| Period | Expensive leg | Peak z | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01.10.2026 — 31.10.2026 | CELO | 2.33 | 30 d |
| 17.06.2026 — 12.07.2026 | XPL | -3.04 | 25 d |
| 10.04.2026 — 21.04.2026 | XPL | -2.41 | 11 d |
A divergence here is the spread z-score leaving ±2σ; the return is the first value back inside ±0.5σ. Two thresholds rather than one: otherwise chatter right at the border would count as a dozen separate divergences. The first bars of the window are skipped — there z is computed on partial history.
Frequently asked
How many XPL is 1 CELO?
1 CELO is worth 0.942002 XPL at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the CELO/XPL range?
Over the last 398 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.164067 (29.09.2025) and 1.14373 (10.10.2026).
Are CELO and XPL correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between CELO and XPL is 0.48, which counts as a moderate link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the CELO/XPL spread z-score now?
The z-score is 0.21 — the spread is within its usual range. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is CELO/XPL suitable for a pair trade?
The mechanics hold up: correlation is 0.48 and the spread historically covers half the way back to its mean in about 8 days. That is a description of past behaviour, not a forecast or a recommendation.
How often do CELO and XPL diverge?
Over 219 daily candles the spread left ±2σ 3 times. The median return to the norm took 25 days.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.