NIL / XPL ratio and spread
1 NIL = 1.016 XPL. Below is the price ratio chart and the regression spread z-score. Hedge ratio β is 1.022 and the correlation between the legs is 0.34.
If you hold NIL · If you hold XPL
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Key numbers
over 361 daily candles
How each of these is computed: regression spread, hedge ratio, spread z-score, half-life, correlation.
What the numbers say
The legs barely move together: correlation of daily log returns is only 0.34. A spread built on such a weak link reverts by coincidence rather than by mechanism.
The spread currently sits at 3.92 standard deviations above its rolling mean — NIL is expensive relative to XPL by the standards of this window.
Historically the spread covers half the way back to its mean in about 12 days, so a divergence here tends to resolve within weeks rather than months.
The current ratio sits in the upper part of its range — 97% of the way from the low to the high of the last 361 daily candles.
Frequently asked
How many XPL is 1 NIL?
1 NIL is worth 1.01582 XPL at the latest exchange quotes. The figure is the ratio of the two USDT prices and updates every minute.
What is the NIL/XPL range?
Over the last 361 daily candles the ratio traded between 0.189208 (29.09.2025) and 1.04377 (25.05.2026).
Are NIL and XPL correlated?
The correlation of daily log returns between NIL and XPL is 0.34, which counts as a weak link. Log returns are used rather than prices: two rising assets correlate almost by default, joint day-to-day movement is what matters.
What is the NIL/XPL spread z-score now?
The z-score is 3.92 — the spread is stretched beyond two standard deviations. It measures how far the regression residual log(A) − β·log(B) sits from its rolling mean, in standard deviations.
Is NIL/XPL suitable for a pair trade?
Weakly. Correlation is only 0.34, so the legs do not reliably move together and the spread carries mostly idiosyncratic noise.
Related pairs
Other pairs sharing a leg with this one.
All figures are computed from exchange data and describe past behaviour. Nothing here is investment advice.